Election 2024: The Run-Up to the Next Presidential Race

The Incumbency Advantage

Historically, the incumbent president holds a significant advantage in re-election bids. According to a Brookings Institution study, since 1945, only three incumbent presidents have lost their bids for a second term: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H.W. Bush in 1992.

This advantage stems from several factors, including incumbents' greater name recognition, fundraising capabilities, and control over the political agenda.

Contenders to Watch

Despite the incumbent's advantage, several candidates have already emerged as potential challengers to President Biden in 2024. These include:

• Ron DeSantis, Florida's Republican Governor
• Donald Trump, former President of the United States
• Nikki Haley, former US Ambassador to the United Nations
• Joe Manchin, Democratic Senator from West Virginia

Key Issues Shaping the Race

The 2024 election is likely to be shaped by several key issues, including:

• The US Economy, particularly inflation and unemployment
• Healthcare, including the Affordable Care Act and prescription drug costs
• Climate Change and environmental policy
• Immigration, border security, and asylum seekers
• Gun Policy, particularly mass shootings and regulation

Recent Polling Data

According to recent polling data from FiveThirtyEight, Biden's approval rating stands at 42%. While this is below the average approval rating for presidents at this stage of their term, it is higher than Trump's approval rating at the same point in his presidency.

Regarding potential challengers, DeSantis currently has the highest favorability ratings among Republicans, followed by Trump. However, Haley and Manchin also have significant support within their respective parties.

The Road Ahead

With the election still more than two years away, the outcome remains highly uncertain. However, the upcoming midterm elections in 2022 will provide important insights into the political landscape and potential trends in 2024.

Stay tuned for updates and analysis as the race develops.